When a leader stock moves, the signal cascades through suppliers, customers, and mid-cap names over days.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Earnings Cascade
5 steps · 3 historical events
Cascade Flow
Lockheed's backlog and margin guidance signal overall DoD budget health and program execution across F-35, missiles, and space.
RTX's Raytheon segment competes and partners with LMT on missile defense; LMT strength implies robust munitions spending.
Northrop is a critical F-35 subcontractor and benefits from the same defense-budget tailwinds driving Lockheed's backlog.
BAE reacts to U.S. budget signals with a lag, as its UK/international exposure provides partial insulation.
L3Harris is a sub-tier supplier whose orders flow through prime-contractor procurement cycles with a multi-quarter lag.
Historical Occurrences
Trigger
Lockheed Martin Q4 2023: backlog hit record $160.6B, 2024 guidance above consensus on strong F-35 and missile orders
Leader Move:
LMT +4.8%Cascade Result
RTX +3%, NOC +2.5% over 2 days. BAE Systems +2% in London. L3Harris +1.5% within the week as defense sentiment improved.
Trigger
White House FY2025 defense budget request of $895B (+1% real growth), emphasis on Pacific deterrence and munitions
Leader Move:
LMT +2.1% on budget dayCascade Result
RTX +3.5% (munitions emphasis), NOC +2% (B-21 funding confirmed), BAE +1.5% (UK spending aligned with NATO 2% pledge).
Trigger
Lockheed awarded $12B F-35 Lot 19 contract — largest single F-35 production award
Leader Move:
LMT +3.4%Cascade Result
RTX +4% (Pratt & Whitney engine work), NOC +3% (fuselage subcontract), BAE +2.5% (UK workshare). L3Harris +2% over the week.
Current Status
No active cascade detected. The next potential trigger is LMT earnings. Monitor for guidance changes or pre-announcement signals.